The food and beverage industry gathered to discuss worsening global trade tensions and tariff increases, despite strong growth in the natural and organic markets, during the 2025 Natural Products Expo West conference.
The Trump administration levied 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico – two of the US’ largest trading partners – and 10% on China on March 5, following a one-month pause in implementing the tariffs. A day later, Trump paused tariffs on some Mexican and Canadian imports amid fears of a larger trade war, the AP reported.
Consumers increasingly worry that President Trump’s policy will hurt the economy, according to New Hope data of 4,000 consumers shared during the state of the industry keynote presentation.
Nearly a quarter of consumers (24%) said they were “somewhat positive” about what President Donald Trump’s policies would mean for the economy, while 28% said they were “very positive,” according to a Feb. 20 survey. However, consumers who said they were “somewhat positive” and “very positive” about Trump’s policies dropped 5% and 13%, respectively, from a Jan. 16 survey.
Economic concerns will push consumers to familiar product categories, requiring natural and organic food and beverage brands to focus on what makes them unique to continue growth in uncertain times, explained Jessica Rubino, VP of content and summits at New Hope Network.
“During uncertain times around policy or administration, consumers often turn to their own choices and to industries that they trust. So, this is going to make it even more important for the natural and organic product industry to really lean into its values and the why,” Rubino elaborated.
Food policies can have ‘a really broad impact’
Regulation changes are influencing consumer behaviors, explained Kathryn Peters, head of industry relations at Spins. For instance, FDA’s decision to rescind its authorization of Red No. 3 is already impacting the market.
Baking ingredients, jerky and meat snacks, candies and bread and baked goods with Red No. 3 sales declined by 16%, 12%, 12% and 7% in dollars, respectively, according to Spins data for the year ending Jan. 26.
“Where there is advocacy and where there is awareness, there can be change. So, regardless of perception, policy does have a potential to make a really broad impact in this industry,” Peters said.
Michelle Obama makes surprise virtual appearance at Expo West
Former First Lady Michelle Obama opened the state of the industry presentation with a virtual address, advocating for the food and beverage industry to develop healthier and more nutritious products. Obama serves as a strategic advisor and co-founder for US-based beverage brand Plezi Nutrition, which launched in 2023 to develop low-sugar drinks for children.
“Young people are not getting the nutrients they need to thrive. They are not eating enough fruits and vegetables. They are not drinking enough water, and they are consuming far too much added sugar, and it is not their fault. Too many families are looking everywhere for more affordable, healthier options, but that is why I started Plezi Nutrition to drive the kind of positive change in the food industry that I worked for as First Lady,” Obama shared.
Will MAHA help the natural and organic markets?
Robert F Kennedy Jr’s health and wellness policies are increasingly unpopular, according to New Hope data.
Approximately a third (32%) of consumers said that Kennedy’s policies would “somewhat improve” health and wellness policies, while 24% said they would “significantly improve” them, per a Feb. 20 survey. Consumers who said that Kennedy’s policies would “significantly improve” health and wellness policies dropped 12%, and those who said “somewhat improve” dropped 1% from the previous month.
In his confirmation hearings, Kennedy advocated for changes to the Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) process and called out the food industry as the “primary culprit” in numerous worsening health epidemics .
Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) platform parallels some of the objectives of the food as medicine movement, including a focus on using healthy foods to prevent or manage chronic illnesses, which can draw attention to the natural and organic markets.
“From a health policy standpoint, there is greater awareness and more dialogue around chronic disease prevention and holistic health solutions. This can certainly be a good thing, but there is also awareness that with more companies entering the space and more consumers buying these products, we need to make sure that we are also safeguarding the integrity of the industry,” Rubino said.
