The surge has been primarily influenced by a 300% increase in the Peruvian output, said Dr. Enrico Bachis, market research director at IFFO, adding that other regions also reported increased fish oil production compared to January 2024, with the exception of the North European countries.
The data is based on statistics shared by IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the United States, Peru, South Africa and Spain, which account for 50% of fish oil output.
A market driven by supply
As Dr. Bachis told NutraIngredients, the increasing production of fish oil will affect its availability and affordability for human nutrition products.
“The fish meal and fish oil market is driven by supply,” he said. “With good forecasts for 2025, we can be positive about the availability of fish oil for the nutraceutical sector.”
According to IFFO data from 2023, fish oil for the direct human consumption market is on the up. A recent GOED report also found that the human nutrition market utilized 178k of crude omega-3 oils in 2021, which rose to an estimated 254k in 2024.
However, demand for fish oil from other sectors has been steadily rising by 2% to 4% every year, meaning an extra 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of fish oil is needed annually to keep up with this growing demand.
Dr. Bachis noted that the aquaculture industry—particularly the farming of salmonids (a family of fish that includes salmon, trout and char)—is expected to be the main factor driving increased demand for fish oil over the next several years.
As aquaculture expands, more fish oil will be needed for fish feed to support the growth of these farmed fish. This rising demand could create competition with the human nutrition market, potentially affecting availability and prices for human consumption.
“We note that fish oil and EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) prices are becoming more sensitive to supply variations,” Dr. Bachis said.
However, the demand for fish oil may have reached a point where people and industries see it as essential and continue to buy it despite price increases.
“Demand for fish oil may have already reached an inelastic point in 2023,” he noted. “While the shortage of fish oil forced the market to find a new higher price equilibrium in 2023, the increased supply has caused a downward readjustment in 2024 and 2025.
“The supply chain will now work against this new setting to allocate the product to those capable of making the most out of fish oil properties.”
Fluctuating omega-3 profiles
As Dr. Bachis explained, the nutritional profile of fish oil— specifically the omega-3 content—depends on the nutrients available in the ocean, which can be affected by environmental factors like El Niño, a climate pattern involving the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean.
The El Niño event in 2023 caused a drop in fish production, but the EPA content in the fish oil was proportionally higher during that time due to the way in which fish accumulate different types of fats, Dr. Bachis said.
Now that conditions in Peru have returned to normal as of mid-2024, the supply of omega-3-rich fish oil is expected to improve, along with the availability of omega-3 EPA & DHA products, he said.
In a typical year, Peru reportedly provides about 30% of the world’s EPA and DHA supply and 60% of the high-EPA and DHA products (meaning those with more than 27% content).
Sustainability drivers
It is key to secure systems that ensure that increased production is sustainable and does not negatively impact fish stocks or marine ecosystems, Dr. Bachis noted.
He explained that 45% of global marine ingredient production from 2019 to 2023 met MarinTrust standards, a certification program dedicated to promoting responsible practices in the sourcing, production and traceability of marine ingredients.
However, certified production has dipped slightly over the past two years, mainly due to reduced fishing in South America in 2023 caused by El Niño, and the loss of Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification for blue whiting, which was suspended due to the absence of an international quota-sharing agreement among coastal nations, leading to catches exceeding scientifically recommended levels.
As production rises, focus on innovation is shifting toward alternative omega-3 sources like algae for human nutrition, Dr. Bachis said, with the 2023 El Niño spurring greater interest in algae oil among EPA & DHA consumers.
However, volume and production costs are still the key market drivers, with fish oil remaining the primary source of omega-3 fatty acids.